Letters to the Next President (2nd edition)

The September 11 attacks may have jarred the United States out of its complacency toward foreign threats.  But our ability and will to exert U.S. leadership outside the confines of military action have been eroded by inattention, budget incrementalism, and an increasing partisanship that afflicts foreign policy decision-making.  As a result, we are conducting diplomacy without sufficient funding and sometimes without public support in an era when we are depending on diplomats to build alliances, block visas to potential terrorists, reconstruct nations, and explain the United States worldwide….

Beyond the horrendous loss of life, consider what would happen to American society if even one small nuclear weapon were detonated in a major metropolitan area such as New York, Los Angeles, or Washington, D.C.   What would be the effect on the national economy if a major city with all its industry were functionally crippled?  How would our national health care system cope with such a tragedy?   How would we clean up what surely would be the most massive environmental disaster in our history?  How would surrounding regions function if all the communications and transportation links of a great city were destroyed or disabled?   What would such an event do to our sense of security and the psychological health of a generation of children?  What would be the economic and geopolitical consequences stemming from the worldwide fear of additional attacks?

In the event of a nuclear attack on an American city, it is almost certain that investment would plummet, global equity markets would be depressed, the financial viability of transportation industries would be suspect, real estate in major cities would lose substantial value, and the exchange of people and ideas would be further encumbered.   The severe strain on our national budget and our economy would put pension programs, health care programs, education programs and many other spending priorities at risk….

The prospects for long-term economic and social advancement rest squarely on our government’s ability to defeat terrorism and to secure weapons and materials of mass destruction to a degree that encourages investment, improves public confidence, and protects the economy against severe economic shocks.  If the United States fails to organize and stabilize the world, our economy will not reach its potential….

The bottom line is this: for the foreseeable future, the United States and its allies will face an existential threat from the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.   Terrorist organizations have demonstrated suicidal tendencies and are beyond deterrence.  We must anticipate that they will use weapons of mass destruction if allowed the opportunity.  The minimum standard for victory in this war is the prevention of any of the individual terrorists or terrorist cells from obtaining weapons or materials of mass destruction….

The Nunn-Lugar Program has established a deep reservoir of experience and talent that could be applied to non-proliferation objectives around the world.  The original Nunn-Lugar bill was concerned with the former Soviet Union, because that is where the vast majority of weapons and materials of mass destruction were.  Today, we must be prepared to extend the Nunn-Lugar concept wherever it can be usefully applied….

As President, you should strive with like-minded leaders to convince every nation that has weapons and materials of mass destruction to account for what it has, spend its own money or obtain international technical and financial resources to safely secure what it has, and pledge that no other nation, cell, or cause will be allowed access or use.

This task will be expensive and painstaking.

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